Casselton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

423
FXUS63 KFGF 070016
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
616 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer this weekend with elevated fire weather
  potential.

- Snow chances return for the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

...Synopsis...

A couple waves can be noted amid amplified SW flow in the
plains and southeast CONUS ridging this morning. A lead wave is
currently centered in Wisconsin with a modest 50kt mid level
speed max with a more potent wave beginning to eject out the
base of the trough back near the Four Corners region. This wave
has a more robust 70kt 500mb max back in New Mexico progged to
be in southern MN around midnight. This rapid forward speed of
the wave should provide ample DCVA for sustained lift in our SE
across west central MN tonight for continued light rain/freezing
rain (as temps cool). Looking ahead to the weekend the Four
Corners trough becomes a cut off low with split flow emerging
and zonal northern stream flow taking hold and bringing a much
warmer Rocky Mountain downslope airmass to our region. A
passing shortwave to our north (ensembles vary on amplitude)
late Sunday into Monday then pushes the baroclinic zone back
south just enough that future transient shortwave activity could
favor a pesky rainy/snowy couple days through the work week as
highs vary from the 30s to 40s (will depend exactly where the
baroclinic zone is).

- Today/Tonight

Strong forcing, while short lived, tonight will be present as
the shortwave ejecting from the Four Corners advances into the
MN/WI area while we find our area in the left exit region of the
jet. While the best DCVA is currently being modeled to miss us
to the south, lakes country (Detroit Lakes to Bemidji) will get
a glancing blow with the crashing cold front aloft transitioning
any remaining ongoing precip to snow (up to a half inch).
Additional freezing rain looks to be minimal with the radar
likely a little misleading at the moment showing nothing, but
likely can attribute that to overshooting rather than a lack of
anything ongoing. Overall it seems the potential for continued
widespread freezing rain or drizzle looks minimal and with the
current 511 maps mostly green indicating no ongoing impacts and
90% of webcams showing something similar have decided to drop to
the advisory for all but Lakes Country.

- Weekend Warmth/Fire Weather

As split flow emerges behind todays wintry precip a notable
warm up is on tap for Saturday but more so for Sunday. Highs on
Saturday near 40 along and north of HWY 2 but near in the
southern Red River Valley and southeast North Dakota with winds
of 20mph gusting 30- 35mph in the same area. HDWI seems a bit
bullish on the significance of the fire weather potential as it
exceeds the 90th percentile of the climate period but actually
reaching near critical levels will hinge upon maxing out the
mixing potential and getting RH lower than the currently
forecast values in the low 40s. A reasonable worst case get RH
closer to the upper 20s/low 30s with LL LR near 8.0- 8.5C/km
indicating strong mixing. Sunday even more of a concern as
mixing looks overall better agreed upon with highs in the 50s
south of HWY 2 and 60s possible for most south of HWY 200, Min
RH in 30s (confident) to as low as the 20s. With similar
strength winds to Saturday this looks like the real day to watch
but being over 48 hours out will wait to significantly raise
the alarm.

- Back to winter

For the work week the baroclinic zone works back south with a
couple transient shortwaves looking to ride along it as temps on
the north side sit in the 30s and to the south 40s (overall
seasonable). NBM probs show a persistent 20-40% each day for
greater than a trace of snow indicating the overall favorable
set up for snow to happen but indicates no real period of
favored activity, just a favorable set up. That is aside from
Tuesday when a wave is better agreed upon by ensembles to track
along the gradient near the ND/SD border with a 30% for an inch
or more but details remain pretty murky due to uncertainties in
amplitude of the wave and its track. Details to come on this in
later forecasts but certainly wouldn`t expect this to turn into
a blockbuster system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Ceilings and visibilities are improving across the region, with
fog, freezing drizzle and light snow all coming to an end.
Ceilings will rise slowly, from their current IFR to MVFR by
Saturday morning, then into VFR by late in the TAF period. For
the first time in awhile we will have some gusty winds, with
south to southwest winds gusting over 20 knots by Saturday
afternoon. Remaining uncertainty in the TAF is how fast the
IFR/MVFR deck clears out, as some guidance is a bit quicker then
this set of TAFs indicates, while other model guidance is
slower. These TAFs split the difference, taking a slow and
steady improvement approach.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Rafferty